European countries could face a rearmament bill of up to $1 trillion as they respond to the growing Russian threat and the possibility of a significant U.S. military drawdown from the continent, according to a September 3 report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London.

The 106-page report, “Progress and Shortfalls in Europe’s Defenses: An Assessment,” highlighted major gaps in Europe’s defense capabilities, including production, intelligence, and critical equipment such as long-range missiles and integrated air and missile defense systems.

“The primary driver of this increasing urgency is the Russian military threat and uncertainty over U.S. commitment to defending European allies,” the report said. Strategic assessments vary across European capitals over how soon Russia might pose a direct threat to NATO territory, but most estimates fall between two and five years.

At the same time, the Pentagon is expected to release its own global posture review this month, which could signal a shift of military resources from Europe to the Asia-Pacific. Some NATO officials believe U.S. force reductions in Europe could reach 30%.

Rising Defense Budgets

European leaders have already moved this year to address the challenge. In March, EU leaders pledged billions in new defense spending, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen calling it a “defining moment in Europe’s history.”

The bloc also made available up to €150 billion ($160 billion) in EU-backed loans to help member states bolster their militaries, while eurozone fiscal rules were eased to exclude military spending.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who had frequently criticized NATO allies for under-spending on defense and relying too heavily on U.S. power, has more recently praised their commitments following the NATO summit in June, when members agreed to raise defense budgets to 5% of GDP.

Still, the IISS report stressed that the issue is not only about money but also about building capacity. “Europe’s defense industries continue to struggle to scale up production quickly enough, while many European militaries remain unable to meet recruitment and retention targets,” the report noted.

Air and Missile Defense Gaps

The report identified integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) as a particular weakness. Former and current U.S. military commanders have said Europe’s air shield is ill-prepared to counter the scale of the Russian threat.

“What you are seeing in major Ukrainian cities could also be repeated in some of Europe’s major cities,” said Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, in an April interview with Radio Free Europe.

Shortage of Long-Range Missiles

The study also highlighted Europe’s shortcomings in long-range strike. While some countries operate advanced cruise missiles such as the Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP or Germany’s Taurus system, “only a handful of European allies have land-based long-range precision fire systems, and at sea only France and the United Kingdom possess land-attack cruise missiles with a 1,000-kilometer range.”

The European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) project was cited as the most important initiative to strengthen land-attack capabilities up to 2,000 kilometers or more. Initially launched by France, Germany, Poland, and Italy, the project has since been joined by the UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands.

Additional Weaknesses

The report pointed to other deficiencies, including limited reconnaissance and intelligence aircraft, a lack of sovereign large-scale cloud computing capabilities, and slow, poorly coordinated procurement processes.

These defense spending demands come as European governments already face heavy fiscal pressures in areas such as healthcare, education, and social welfare.

The report concluded that meeting these challenges will require many NATO countries in Europe to take financial risks and make politically difficult decisions.

U.S. stock indexes were mostly higher on Wednesday after a court ruling involving Alphabet boosted demand for the technology sector.

Alphabet shares jumped 7.4% to $227.68 after a U.S. court ruled against breaking up Google’s parent company, removing a major regulatory hurdle for the tech giant.

Apple shares also gained 2.4% to $235.12, supported by the same decision that allows Alphabet to continue paying Apple to keep Google as the default search engine on iPhones.

As of 16:58 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% (175 points) to 45,124. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% (18 points) to 6,434, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.9% (183 points) to 21,460.

Copper prices fell on Wednesday despite strong Chinese economic data and a weaker U.S. dollar against most major currencies.

The metal had posted marginal gains on the London Metal Exchange but continued to trade below the key psychological threshold of $10,000 per ton, with expectations building that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this month.

On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper futures inched up 0.1% to $9,988.5 per ton as of 12:47 p.m. Mecca time.

Copper briefly touched $10,038 — its highest level since March 26 — at the opening of electronic trading, which was delayed by 90 minutes due to an earlier technical glitch.

Zinc climbed 0.7% to $2,884 per ton after hitting $2,900 earlier, its highest since March 28. Meanwhile, aluminum slipped 0.1% to $2,617 per ton.

Government data released Wednesday showed that China’s services sector activity grew at its fastest pace in 15 months in August, according to a private survey.

Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.3% to 98.07 by 16:19 GMT, after reaching as high as 98.6 and as low as 98.03.

In U.S. trading, copper futures for December delivery declined 0.5% to $4.61 per pound as of 16:15 GMT.

Bitcoin held steady near $111,000 on Wednesday after reclaiming its 100-day exponential moving average in the prior session.

The recovery in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been supported by renewed institutional demand and corporate accumulation, which lifted sentiment. At the same time, growing expectations of a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September have fueled risk appetite, underpinning Bitcoin’s rebound.

Rate cut bets drive risk appetite

Bitcoin began the week on a mildly positive note, consolidating around $111,100 midweek after ending a three-week streak of lower lows from its August record high at $124,474.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing more than a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 policy meeting. Investors are also anticipating at least two additional rate cuts before the end of 2025, which could provide further support for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Traders are now focused on key U.S. economic data this week, including the JOLTS job openings report on Wednesday, ADP private payrolls and ISM services PMI on Thursday, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report — all critical inputs shaping Fed policy and Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Institutional demand supports recovery

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $332.76 million in inflows on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue.

On the corporate front, Nasdaq-listed CIMG Inc announced it raised $55 million through the sale of 220 million common shares, securing 500 Bitcoin as part of its long-term reserve strategy. Japanese investment firm Metaplanet also boosted its holdings with an additional 1,009 Bitcoin purchase on Monday, bringing its portfolio to 20,000 BTC. Separately, Michael Saylor announced an increase in preferred STRC share distributions from 9% to 10%, reinforcing his company’s strategy to leverage its sizable Bitcoin reserves.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio told the Financial Times that cryptocurrencies now represent a “limited-supply alternative currency,” adding that rising U.S. dollar issuance or weakening demand could make crypto more attractive. He warned that most fiat currencies burdened by high debt risk losing their store-of-value role, as seen in the 1930s, 1940s, 1970s, and 1980s.

Concerns linger despite rebound

Glassnode data flagged signs of caution, noting Bitcoin is trading near the short-term holder cost basis — historically a battleground between buyers and sellers.

The report highlighted fading price momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering oversold territory, reflecting weak buying conviction. However, such low RSI levels have sometimes preceded stabilization or short-term reversals.

In futures markets, positioning remained cautious, while options activity contracted with declining open interest and narrowing volatility spreads. Still, the 25-delta skew climbed above historical norms, signaling strong demand for downside protection and a defensive tilt among options traders.

Bitcoin price outlook

Bitcoin closed Tuesday above its 100-day EMA at $110,723 and was steady near $111,100 in Wednesday trading.

If recovery momentum continues, gains could extend toward daily resistance at $116,000.

On the technical side, RSI climbed to 45, approaching the neutral 50 mark, suggesting easing negative momentum. Meanwhile, MACD lines are nearing a bullish crossover as red histogram bars shrink, reinforcing the potential for a new upward wave.